Upstrapping to determine futility: predicting future outcomes nonparametrically from past data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials often involve some form of interim monitoring to determine futility before planned trial completion. While many options for interim monitoring exist (e.g., alpha-spending, conditional power), nonparametric based interim monitoring methods are also needed to account for more complex trial designs and analyses. The upstrap is one recently proposed nonparametric method that may be applied for interim monitoring. METHODS: Upstrapping is motivated by the case resampling bootstrap and involves repeatedly sampling with replacement from the interim data to simulate thousands of fully enrolled trials. The p-value is calculated for each upstrapped trial and the proportion of upstrapped trials for which the p-value criteria are met is compared with a pre-specified decision threshold. To evaluate the potential utility for upstrapping as a form of interim futility monitoring, we conducted a simulation study considering different sample sizes with several different proposed calibration strategies for the upstrap. We first compared trial rejection rates across a selection of threshold combinations to validate the upstrapping method. Then, we applied upstrapping methods to simulated clinical trial data, directly comparing their performance with more traditional alpha-spending and conditional power interim monitoring methods for futility. RESULTS: The method validation demonstrated that upstrapping is much more likely to find evidence of futility in the null scenario than the alternative across a variety of simulations settings. Our three proposed approaches for calibration of the upstrap had different strengths depending on the stopping rules used. Compared to O'Brien-Fleming group sequential methods, upstrapped approaches had type I error rates that differed by at most 1.7% and expected sample size was 2-22% lower in the null scenario, while in the alternative scenario power fluctuated between 15.7% lower and 0.2% higher and expected sample size was 0-15% lower. CONCLUSIONS: In this proof-of-concept simulation study, we evaluated the potential for upstrapping as a resampling-based method for futility monitoring in clinical trials. The trade-offs in expected sample size, power, and type I error rate control indicate that the upstrap can be calibrated to implement futility monitoring with varying degrees of aggressiveness and that performance similarities can be identified relative to considered alpha-spending and conditional power futility monitoring methods.

Recent innovations in adaptive trial designs: A review of design opportunities in translational research.

Clinical trials are constantly evolving in the context of increasingly complex research questions and potentially limited resources. In this review article, we discuss the emergence of "adaptive" clinical trials that allow for the preplanned modification of an ongoing clinical trial based on the accumulating evidence with application across translational research. These modifications may include terminating a trial before completion due to futility or efficacy, re-estimating the needed sample size to ensure adequate power, enriching the target population enrolled in the study, selecting across multiple treatment arms, revising allocation ratios used for randomization, or selecting the most appropriate endpoint. Emerging topics related to borrowing information from historic or supplemental data sources, sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMART), master protocol and seamless designs, and phase I dose-finding studies are also presented. Each design element includes a brief overview with an accompanying case study to illustrate the design method in practice. We close with brief discussions relating to the statistical considerations for these contemporary designs.

Integration of a superconducting nanowire single-photon detector into a confocal microscope for time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL)-mapping: Sensitivity and time resolution.

This report highlights the combination of the MicroTime 100 upright confocal fluorescence lifetime microscope with a Single Quantum Eos Superconducting Nanowire Single-Photon Detector (SNSPD) system as a powerful tool for photophysical research and applications. We focus on an application in materials science, photoluminescence imaging, and lifetime characterization of Cu(InGa)Se2 (CIGS) devices intended for solar cells. We demonstrate improved sensitivity, signal-to-noise ratio, and time-resolution in combination with confocal spatial resolution in the near-infrared (NIR) range, specifically in the 1000-1300 nm range. The MicroTime 100-Single Quantum Eos system shows two orders of magnitude higher signal-to-noise ratio for CIGS devices' photoluminescence imaging compared to a standard NIR-photomultiplier tube (NIR-PMT) and a three-fold improvement in time resolution, which is now limited by the laser pulse width. Our results demonstrate the advantages in terms of image quality and time resolution of SNSPDs technology for imaging in materials science.

Lopinavir/ritonavir for treatment of non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVES: Effective and widely available therapies are still needed for outpatients with COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) for early treatment of non-hospitalized individuals diagnosed with COVID-19. METHODS: This randomized, placebo (Plb)-controlled, double-blind, multi-site decentralized clinical trial enrolled non-hospitalized adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and six or fewer days of acute respiratory infection symptoms who were randomized to either twice-daily oral LPV/r (400 mg/100 mg) or Plb for 14 days. Daily surveys on study days 1 through 16 and again on study day 28 evaluated symptoms, daily activities, and hospitalization status. The primary outcome was longitudinal change in an ordinal scale based on a combination of symptoms, activity, and hospitalization status through day 15 and was analyzed by use of a Bayesian longitudinal proportional odds logistic regression model for estimating the probability of a superior recovery for LPV/r over Plb (odds ratio >1). RESULTS: Between June 2020 and December 2021, 448 participants were randomized to receive either LPV/r (n = 216) or Plb (n = 221). The mean symptom duration before randomization was 4.3 days (SD 1.3). There were no differences between treatment groups through the first 15 days for the ordinal primary outcome (odds ratio 0.96; 95% credible interval: 0.66 to 1.41). There were 3.2% (n = 7) of LPV/r and 2.7% (n = 6) of Plb participants hospitalized by day 28. Serious adverse events did not differ between groups. CONCLUSION: LPV/r did not significantly improve symptom resolution or reduce hospitalization in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04372628.

Prelude to PATHWEIGH: pragmatic weight management in primary care.

OBJECTIVE: Treatment of obesity-related diseases, rather than obesity itself, remains the mainstay of medical care. The current study examined a novel approach that prioritizes weight management in primary care to shift this paradigm. METHODS: PATHWEIGH is a weight management approach consisting of staff team training, workflow system management, and data capture from tools built into the electronic medical record (EPIC). PATHWEIGH was compared to standard of care (SOC) using two family medicine clinics in the same US healthcare system. Descriptive statistics compared patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors between the groups among those with at least one weight-prioritized visit (WPV) and one follow-up weight over 14 months. RESULTS: Groups were similar in terms of total patient visits (7,353 vs. 7,984) and patients eligible for a WPV (i.e. >18 years + body mass index >25 kg/m2; 3,746 vs. 3,008, PATHWEIGH vs. SOC, respectively). However, more PATHWEIGH clinic patients (15.9% vs. 8.4%; P < 0.001) received at least one WPV. Although no difference was observed for average patient weight loss over 14 months (P = 0.991), the number of WPVs per patient was higher in PATHWEIGH (P < 0.001) and significantly associated with weight loss (P = 0.001), with an average decrease in weight of 0.55 kg per additional visit. CONCLUSIONS: Results from the current study demonstrate early success in changing the paradigm from treating weight-related comorbidities to treating weight in primary care.

Trial of Early Antiviral Therapies during Non-hospitalized Outpatient Window (TREAT NOW) for COVID-19: a summary of the protocol and analysis plan for a decentralized randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a heterogeneous outcome in individuals from remaining asymptomatic to death. In a majority of cases, mild symptoms are present that do not require hospitalization and can be successfully treated in the outpatient setting, though symptoms may persist for a long duration. We hypothesize that drugs suitable for decentralized study in outpatients will have efficacy among infected outpatients METHODS: The TREAT NOW platform is designed to accommodate testing multiple agents with the ability to incorporate new agents in the future. TREAT NOW is an adaptive, blinded, multi-center, placebo-controlled superiority randomized clinical trial which started with two active therapies (hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir) and placebo, with the hydroxychloroquine arm dropped shortly after enrollment began due to external evidence. Each arm has a target enrollment of 300 participants who will be randomly assigned in an equal allocation to receive either an active therapy or placebo twice daily for 14 days with daily electronic surveys collected over days 1 through 16 and on day 29 to evaluate symptoms and a modified COVID-19 ordinal outcome scale. Participants are enrolled remotely by telephone and consented with a digital interface, study drug is overnight mailed to study participants, and data collection occurs electronically without in-person interactions. DISCUSSION: If effective treatments for COVID-19 can be identified for individuals in the outpatient setting before they advance to severe disease, it will prevent progression to more severe disease, reduce the need for hospitalization, and shorten the duration of symptoms. The novel decentralized, "no touch" approach used by the TREAT NOW platform has distinction advantages over traditional in-person trials to reach broader populations and perform study procedures in a pragmatic yet rigorous manner. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04372628. Registered on April 30, 2020. First posted on May 4, 2020.

Surgical approach is associated with complication rate in sinonasal malignancy: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Management of sinonasal malignancy (SNM) often includes surgical resection as part of the multimodality treatment. Treatment-related surgical morbidity can occur, yet risk factors associated with complications in this population have not been sufficiently investigated. METHODS: Adult patients with histologically confirmed SNM whose primary treatment included surgical resection were prospectively enrolled into an observational, multi-institutional cohort study from 2015 to 2020. Sociodemographic, disease, and treatment data were collected. Complications assessed included cerebrospinal fluid leak, orbital injury, intracranial injury, diplopia, meningitis, osteoradionecrosis, hospitalization for neutropenia, and subsequent chronic rhinosinusitis. The surgical approach was categorized as endoscopic resection (ER) or open/combined resection (O/CR). Associations between factors and complications were analyzed using Student's t test, Fisher's exact test, and logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Overall, 142 patients met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-three subjects had at least 1 complication (16.2%). On unadjusted analysis, adjuvant radiation therapy was associated with developing a complication (91.3% vs 65.5%, p = 0.013). Compared with the ER group (n = 98), the O/CR group (n = 44) had a greater percentage of higher T-stage lesions (p = 0.004) and more frequently received adjuvant radiation (84.1% vs 64.4%, p = 0.017) and chemotherapy (50.0% vs 30.6%, p = 0.038). Complication rates were similar between the ER and O/CR groups without controlling for other factors. Regression analysis that retained certain factors showed O/CR was associated with increased odds of experiencing a complication (odds ratio, 3.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-11.19). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective, multicenter evaluation of SNM treatment outcomes is feasible. Undergoing O/CR was associated with increased odds of developing a complication after accounting for radiation therapy. Further studies are warranted to build upon these findings.

On the Importance of Joint Mitigation Strategies for Front, Bulk, and Rear Recombination in Ultrathin Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Solar Cells.

Several optoelectronic issues, such as poor optical absorption and recombination, limit the power conversion efficiency of ultrathin Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGS) solar cells. To mitigate recombination losses, two combined strategies were implemented: a potassium fluoride (KF) post-deposition treatment (PDT) and a rear interface passivation strategy based on an aluminum oxide (Al2O3) point contact structure. The simultaneous implementation of both strategies is reported for the first time on ultrathin CIGS devices. Electrical measurements and 1D simulations demonstrate that in specific conditions, devices with only KF-PDT may outperform rear interface passivation based devices. By combining KF-PDT and rear interface passivation, an enhancement in an open-circuit voltage of 178 mV is reached over devices that have a rear passivation only, and of 85 mV over devices with only a KF-PDT process. Time-Resolved Photoluminescence measurements showed the beneficial effects of combining KF-PDT and the rear interface passivation at decreasing recombination losses in the studied devices, enhancing charge carrier lifetime. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements indicate the presence of an In and Se-rich layer that we linked to be a KInSe2 layer. Our results suggest that when bulk and front interface recombination values are very high, they dominate, and individual passivation strategies work poorly. Hence, this work shows that for ultrathin devices, passivation mitigation strategies need to be implemented in tandem.

Compressive Big Data Analytics: An ensemble meta-algorithm for high-dimensional multisource datasets.

Health advances are contingent on continuous development of new methods and approaches to foster data-driven discovery in the biomedical and clinical sciences. Open-science and team-based scientific discovery offer hope for tackling some of the difficult challenges associated with managing, modeling, and interpreting of large, complex, and multisource data. Translating raw observations into useful information and actionable knowledge depends on effective domain-independent reproducibility, area-specific replicability, data curation, analysis protocols, organization, management and sharing of health-related digital objects. This study expands the functionality and utility of an ensemble semi-supervised machine learning technique called Compressive Big Data Analytics (CBDA). Applied to high-dimensional data, CBDA (1) identifies salient features and key biomarkers enabling reliable and reproducible forecasting of binary, multinomial and continuous outcomes (i.e., feature mining); and (2) suggests the most accurate algorithms/models for predictive analytics of the observed data (i.e., model mining). The method relies on iterative subsampling, combines function optimization and statistical inference, and generates ensemble predictions for observed univariate outcomes. The novelty of this study is highlighted by a new and expanded set of CBDA features including (1) efficiently handling extremely large datasets (>100,000 cases and >1,000 features); (2) generalizing the internal and external validation steps; (3) expanding the set of base-learners for joint ensemble prediction; (4) introducing an automated selection of CBDA specifications; and (5) providing mechanisms to assess CBDA convergence, evaluate the prediction accuracy, and measure result consistency. To ground the mathematical model and the corresponding computational algorithm, CBDA 2.0 validation utilizes synthetic datasets as well as a population-wide census-like study. Specifically, an empirical validation of the CBDA technique is based on a translational health research using a large-scale clinical study (UK Biobank), which includes imaging, cognitive, and clinical assessment data. The UK Biobank archive presents several difficult challenges related to the aggregation, harmonization, modeling, and interrogation of the information. These problems are related to the complex longitudinal structure, variable heterogeneity, feature multicollinearity, incongruency, and missingness, as well as violations of classical parametric assumptions. Our results show the scalability, efficiency, and usability of CBDA to interrogate complex data into structural information leading to derived knowledge and translational action. Applying CBDA 2.0 to the UK Biobank case-study allows predicting various outcomes of interest, e.g., mood disorders and irritability, and suggests new and exciting avenues of evidence-based research in the context of identifying, tracking, and treating mental health and aging-related diseases. Following open-science principles, we share the entire end-to-end protocol, source-code, and results. This facilitates independent validation, result reproducibility, and team-based collaborative discovery.

Thermal antinociceptive, sedative and cardiovascular effects of Governing Vessel 1 dexmedetomidine pharmacopuncture in healthy cats.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the antinociceptive, sedative and cardiovascular effects of dexmedetomidine pharmacopuncture at Governing Vessel 1 (GV 1) with dexmedetomidine intramuscular (IM) administration. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized, masked crossover design. ANIMALS: A group of eight healthy female cats. METHODS: Cats were randomly administered either dexmedetomidine (0.005 mg kg-1; Dex-IM) IM or at acupuncture point GV 1 (Dex-P) separated by 1 week. Prior to and up to 120 minutes posttreatment, skin temperature (ST), thermal threshold (TT), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (fR), sedation, muscle relaxation and auditory response scores were recorded. Parametric data were analyzed using a two-way repeated measures anova followed by Tukey's test for multiple comparisons. Nonparametric data were analyzed using a Friedman test followed by Dunn's multiple comparisons test, and Wilcoxon signed-rank test with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. RESULTS: There were no differences within or between treatments for ST, fR and auditory response. TT was significantly higher at 30-90 minutes in Dex-P (p ≤ 0.0285) than baseline. TT was significantly higher at 60-90 minutes for Dex-P than for Dex-IM (p ≤ 0.0252). HR was significantly lower at 10-75 minutes in Dex-P (p ≤ 0.0378) and at 5-75 minutes in Dex-IM (p ≤ 0.0132) than baseline. Compared with baseline, sedation scores were higher at 25 minutes (p = 0.0327) and 30 minutes (p = 0.0327), and muscle relaxation scores were higher at 25 minutes (p = 0.0151) and 35 minutes (p = 0.0151) in Dex-P. There were no differences in HR, sedation and muscle relaxation scores between treatments. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Dex-P increased thermal antinociception compared with Dex-IM at the same dose of dexmedetomidine in cats. This antinociceptive effect must be evaluated under clinical situations.

Upconversion in solar cells.

The possibility to tune chemical and physical properties in nanosized materials has a strong impact on a variety of technologies, including photovoltaics. One of the prominent research areas of nanomaterials for photovoltaics involves spectral conversion. Modification of the spectrum requires down- and/or upconversion or downshifting of the spectrum, meaning that the energy of photons is modified to either lower (down) or higher (up) energy. Nanostructures such as quantum dots, luminescent dye molecules, and lanthanide-doped glasses are capable of absorbing photons at a certain wavelength and emitting photons at a different (shorter or longer) wavelength. We will discuss upconversion by lanthanide compounds in various host materials and will further demonstrate upconversion to work for thin-film silicon solar cells.